Market Outlook
August 20, 2019
Market Cues
Domestic
Chg (%) (Pts)
(Close)
Indices
Indian markets are likely to open flat tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
0.1
52
37,402
Nifty
0.1
6
11,054
The US stocks move sharply higher on early trading, continuing to recover
from the sell off. The major averages has given some ground since then but
Mid Cap
0.2
27
13,518
remain firmly in positive trend. The Dow is up by 1.1 percent to 26,152 and
Small Cap
0.5
65
12,649
the Nasdaq jumped by 1.3 percent to 7996.
Bankex
0.0
1
31,891
The UK stocks rose on risk appetite as US treasury yields bounced back. FTSE
100 increased by 0.9 percent to 7,168 as expectations grew of further
Global Indices
Chg (%) (Pts)
(Close)
stimulus by central banks.
Dow Jones
1.1
266
26,152
On domestic front, Indian shares ended of their days high. The benchmark
Nasdaq
1.3
101
7,996
BSE Sensex inched up by 0.1 percent to 37,402.
FTSE
0.9
71
7,168
Nikkei
0.7
144
20,563
News Analysis
Hang Seng
2.2
558
26,292
Cash-strapped DHFL makes fresh default on Rs
1,571-crore bond
Shanghai Com
2.1
59
2,883
repayments.
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Advances /
BSE
NSE
Declines
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Advances
1,268
963
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Declines
1,212
835
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Unchanged
164
328
Refer Pg5 onwards
Volumes ( Cr)
Top Picks
CMP
Target
Upside
BSE
1,824
Company
Sector
Rating
( )
( )
(%)
NSE
25,422
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
700
867
23.8
ICICI Bank
Financials
Buy
419
490
16.9
Net Inflows (
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
170
330
94.1
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Cr)
Accumulat
Bata India
Others
1,474
1,643
11.5
FII
-1,339
-10,290
-2,39,463
e
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
468
612
30.7
*MFs
601
7,616
27,377
More Top Picks on Pg4
Top Gainers
Price ( )
Chg (%)
FORCEMOT
1300
16.2
BALRAMCHIN
127
6.5
IDBI
28
12.7
ZENSARTECH
228
5.6
DHFL
49
6.9
Top Losers
Price ( )
Chg (%)
IDEA
6
-7.1
INOXWIND
39
-6.3
RELCAPITAL
46
-5.5
BIOCON
216
-5.1
RCOM
1
-4.8
As on Aug 19, 2019
Market Outlook
August 20, 2019
News Analysis
Cash-strapped DHFL makes fresh default on Rs 1,571-crore
bond repayments
DHFL on Monday said it has defaulted on its financial repayment
obligations worth Rs 1,571 crore with regard to issuance of bonds and
commercial papers.
The defaults pertain to three cases with regard to interest payment on
non-convertible debentures and commercial papers (CPs), Dewan
Housing Finance Corporation Ltd (DHFL) said in a regulatory filing.
In a break-up, the non-banking financial company (NBFC) said it has
defaulted on Rs 46.92 crore towards interest amount on secured NCDs
(9.92 per cent and 9.40 per cent/10 year tenor); on NCDs issued through a
public issue for multiple tenors of amount involving interest of Rs 363.77
crore and principal amount of Rs 1,059.91 crore.
Besides, defaults of Rs 100 crore occurred on CPs.
The company is estimated to be sitting on a debt-pile of over Rs 90,000
crore.
Stock of DHFL closed 6.86 per cent up at Rs 49.05 on BSE.
Economic and Political News
Slowdown 'very worrisome, businesses complaining aloud': Raghuram
Rajan
3 years on, just 6% resolution plans accepted under IBC, says report
BSE to expand commodity derivatives with slew of new contracts next
quarter
Corporate tax for firms with over Rs 400 crore turnover to be cut
gradually
Corporate News
Cash-strapped DHFL makes fresh default on Rs 1,571-crore bond
repayments
Ravinder Takkar replaces Balesh Sharma as CEO of Vodafone Idea
Colgate loses grip as market share in toothpaste segment down 52%
Spandana Sphoorty Financial shares fail to shine on debut, end at Rs
855
Coffee Day shares end 16-day losing streak, hit 5% upper circuit
Market Outlook
August 20, 2019
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
( Cr)
( )
( )
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur
well for Cooling products business which is out
Blue Star
6,849
711
867
21.9
pacing the market growth. EMPPAC division's
profitability to improve once operating
environment turns around.
Well capitalized with CAR of
18.1% which
gives sufficient room to grow asset base.
ICICI Bank
273,313
423
490
15.7
Faster resolution of NPA would reduce
provision cost, which would help to report
better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment,
KEI Industries
3,663
464
612
31.9
rising B2C sales and higher exports to boost
the revenues and profitability
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are
Maruti Suzuki
180,491
5,975
8,552
43.1
expected to improve the company’s sales
volume and margins, respectively.
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,255
562
1,000
77.9
distribution network is leading to strong growth
in business. Likely to post robust growth for
next 3-4 years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
19,956
91
130
43.4
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual
fund would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in
dairy products. Rising revenue share of high-
Parag Milk Foods
1,424
169
330
94.9
margin Value Added Products and reduction
in interest cost is likely to boost margins and
earnings in next few years.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in
the 4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by
20.3%. Steady growth in interest income and
other income aided PAT growth. The Strong
HDFC Bank
603,371
2,207
2,660
20.5
liability franchise and healthy capitalisation
provides strong earning visibility. At the current
market price, the bank is trading at 3.2x FY20E
ABV.
We expect strong PAT growth on back of
healthy growth in automobile segment (on
back of new launches and facelifts in some of
M&M
64,696
520
1,050
101.8
the model ) and strong growth in Tractors
segment coupled by its strong brand recall
and improvement in rural sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner
(RAC) outsourced manufacturing space in
India with a market share of 55.4%. It is a one-
Amber Enterprises
2,606
829
910
9.8
stop solutions provider for the major brands in
the RAC industry and currently serves eight out
of the 10 top RAC brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags
across brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT
CAGR of ~16% to ~`3115cr over FY2018-20E
Bata India
18,939
1,474
1,643
11.5
mainly due to new product launches, higher
number of stores addition and focus on
women’s high growth segment and margin
improvement
Market Outlook
August 20, 2019
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
( Cr)
( )
( )
(%)
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by
Shriram Transport Finance
rising bond yields on the back of stronger
23,593
1,040
1,470
41.4
pricing power and an enhancing ROE by
750bps over FY18-20E, supported by
decline in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27%
CAGR over FY19-FY20 on the back of
strong steel demand and capacity
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
10,695
105
250
138.4
addition. On the bottom line front, we
expect JSPL to turn in to profit by FY19 on
back of strong operating margin
improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the
Indian market leader in glass-lined (GL)
steel equipment. GMM is expected to
cross CAGR 15%+ in revenue over the
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
1,997
1,366
1,570
14.9
next few years mainly led by uptick in
demand from user industries and it is also
expecting to increase its share of non-GL
business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst
the Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is
well placed to face the challenging
generic markets, given its focus on
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
35,341
603
890
47.6
achieving growth through productivity.
Aurobindo will report net revenue & net
profit CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp. during
FY2018-20E. Valuations are cheap V/s its
peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x.
We believe advance to grow at a
healthy CAGR of
35% over FY18-20E.
RBL Bank
17,139
399
650
63.1
Below peers level ROA (1.2% FY18) to
expand led by margin expansion and
lower credit cost.
TTK Prestige has emerged as one of the
leading brands in kitchen appliances in
India after its successful transformation
from a single product company to
TTK Prestige
8,111
5,852
7,708
31.7
offering an entire gamut of home and
kitchen appliances. We are expecting a
CAGR of 18% in revenue and 25% in PAT
over FY2018-20.
Maintain Hold.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
August 20, 2019
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
( Cr)
( )
( )
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,295
248
360
45.3
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR
of ~9% to
2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back
of healthy demand growth in plastic division.
Nilkamal
1,529
1,025
2,178
112.6
On the bottom-line front, we estimate ~10%
CAGR to
162cr owing to improvement in
volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader
in liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It
derives demand from several industries which
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,585
1,999
2,500
25.1
are expected to register
10%+ CAGR in
demand in the coming years. We can book
out from the stock with 16% profit at Rs. 2500
TP.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures
plywood & allied products and medium
density fibreboards (MDF). GIL to report net
Greenply Industries
1,722
140
256
82.3
revenue CAGR of
~14% to
~`2,478cr over
FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy growth in
plywood & lamination business on the back of
strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to
achieve ROE of
18% by 2020 and recent
L&T Finance Holding
20,965
105
210
100.4
capital infusion of
`3000cr would support
advance growth.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over
GIC Housing
1,011
188
424
125.8
next two year; change in borrowing mix will
help in NIM improvement
Strong brands and distribution network would
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,101
235
549
133.6
boost growth going ahead. Stock currently
trades at an inexpensive valuation.
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,106
40
95
137.5
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
We expect Inox Wind to report exponential
growth in top-line and bottom-line over FY19-
20E. The growth would be led by changing
renewable energy industry dynamics in favor
Inox Winds
869
39
120
206.5
of wind energy segment viz. changes in
auction regime from Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) to
reverse auction regime and Government’s
guidance for 10GW auction in FY19 and FY20
each.
Considering the strong CV demand due to
change in BS-VI emission norms (will trigger
pre-buying activities), pick up in construction
Ashok Leyland
18,949
65
156
141.7
activities and no significant impact on industry
due to recent axle load norms, we
recommend BUY on Ashok Leyland
at current valuations.
Well planned strategy to grow small business
loans and cross-selling would propel fees
Yes Bank
17,789
77
NA
NA
income. We expect YES to grow its advance
much higher than industry and improvement in
asset quality to support profitability.
Market Outlook
August 20, 2019
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported
Estimated
May 16, 2019
JN
Housing Starts YoY
% Change
Sep
0.02
(0.01)
May 17, 2019
JN
Annualized Housing Starts
% Change
Sep
0.957m
0.950m
May 17, 2019
JN
Construction Orders YoY
% Change
Sep
0.01
--
May 20, 2019
12:00 AM
ES
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Sep
0.06
--
May 21, 2019
12:00 AM
RO
ILO Unemployment Rate
% Change
Sep
0.04
--
May 24, 2019
3:15 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate SA
% Change
Sep
0.03
--
May 25, 2019
4:30 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate Gross Rate
% Change
Sep
0.04
0.04
May 26, 2019
4:30 AM
FI
Trade Balance
% Change
Aug F
-400m
--
May 28, 2019
4:30 AM
TU
Economic Confidence
% Change
Oct
71.00
--
May 30, 2019
5:20 AM
TU
Trade Balance
% Ratio
Sep
-2.42b
-1.90b
May 30, 2019
5:20 AM
TU
Central Bank Inflation Report
%
June 02, 2019
5:30 AM
TH
Exports YoY
% Change
Sep
0.06
--
June 03, 2019
5:30 AM
TH
Exports
% Change
Sep
$22380m
--
June 04, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Imports YoY
%
Sep
0.24
--
June 08, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Imports
%
Sep
$21776m
--
June 09, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Trade Balance
Thousands
Sep
$604m
--
June 10, 2019
6:00 AM
TH
BoP Current Account Balance
% Change
Sep
$753m
$1200m
June 11, 2019
0-Jan-00
AU
CPI YoY
% Change
3Q
0.02
0.02
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
August 20, 2019
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
8.5
8.4
9.1
9.0
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
7.0
7.0
8.1
8.0
7.6
7.7
7.0
6.5
8.0
6.8
7.0
7.0
6.0
7.0
6.3
6.6
4.8
6.1
4.6
4.5
4.6
5.0
5.6
3.8
6.0
4.0
2.6
5.0
3.0
1.7
4.0
2.0
1.0
0.3
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
5.2
5.07
54.0
4.9
4.9
5.0
4.4
4.6
4.3
4.2
52.0
3.7
3.7
4.0
3.4
50.0
3.0
2.6
2.3
2.1
2.0
48.0
2.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
7.00
30.0
6.50
25.0
6.00
20.0
5.50
15.0
5.00
10.0
4.50
5.0
4.00
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 15 April, 2019
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
August 20, 2019
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
8.0
(%)
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.5
2.0
0.7
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research As of 25 Sep, 2018
Market Outlook
August 20, 2019
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
1,00,995
4.1
5.8
38.8
Russia
Micex
2,559
0.0
1.5
10.9
India
Nifty
11,789
-1.1
1.4
10.0
China
Shanghai Composite
2,979
2.8
-3.6
4.6
South Africa
Top 40
51,925
3.8
9.7
3.7
Mexico
Mexbol
44,686
-11.2
-15.1
-11.3
Indonesia
LQ45
1,006
-3.2
4.1
-8.5
Malaysia
KLCI
1,708
1.4
1.7
-8.0
Thailand
SET 50
1,099
0.2
0.6
-8.9
USA
Dow Jones
26,600
7.2
2.6
9.6
UK
FTSE
7,426
3.7
2.0
-2.8
Japan
Nikkei
21,276
3.3
0.3
-4.6
Germany
DAX
12,399
5.7
7.6
0.8
France
CAC
5,539
6.4
3.5
4.0
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 06 July, 2019
Market Outlook
August 20, 2019
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
17-08-2018
Top Picks
Ashok Leyland
128
156
Open
10-08-2018
Top Picks
Inox Wind
107
127
Open
30-11-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
7,206
8,200
Open
09-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
6,206
7,500
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
30-08-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
626
690
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
573
1016
Closed(17/08/2018)
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
27-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,170
1,287
Open
18-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,024
1,200
07-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
984
1,100
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
27-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
974
1,071
Open
14-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
868
1,000
07-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
788
870
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
August 20, 2019
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
FundamentalEndurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
August 20, 2019
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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